The Weekend Warrior's 2012 Summer Box Office Preview

non_amos Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:21 am

Do you want a good laugh? Do you want a typical apologist prediction? Or should I say that of a NOLANITE?!

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=89374

I won't copy & paste this entire article because 1) it's lengthy & 2) it doesn't all pertain to superhero films. What I will do is post a few 'predictions from this 'Nolanite':

As mentioned in the Long Distance Box Office a few months back, the three biggest movies for the summer are all likely to be based on superheroes. While Marvel's The Avengers (Disney - May 4) has the advantage of being the first movie out of the gate this summer, something that often helps a movie do more business by summer's end, it does seem to have a limit on business based on previous Marvel movies, even if early reviews and word-of-mouth are overwhelmingly positive.

Then again, it's hard to deny the anticipation for Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros. - July 20), the follow-up to his $533 million grossing hit, which returns Christian Bale to the role of Batman for the third time. While this one doesn't have the morbid curiosity factor that went along with Heath Ledger's death--he won an Oscar post-humously for the role of the Joker--it has Anne Hathaway as Catwoman, which could be a genius way of bringing women into see the movie. The previous movie delivered on so many levels that we expect a lot of people to rush out and see the sequel, allowing it to take the opening weekend record that it previously held but lost to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 last year.

Some of the more interesting summer releases include two big franchise reboots with Sony's The Amazing Spider-Man and Universal's The Bourne Legacy, both which introduce new actors to the roles made famous by others in hopes that the namebrand value of the previous franchises will be enough to get people into theaters. We think in both cases, this will prove to be successful, even if Andrew Garfield isn't as known a commodity as Tobey Maguire when he played Spider-Man in Sam Raimi's three movies. Jeremy Renner is going to benefit from coming off the one-two blockbuster punch of Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol and Marvel's The Avengers, as "Bourne" firmly moves him into a new class of box office star.

Note how he 'predicts' that THE AVENGERS will run out of steam, basically. Also note the praise & adulation that he heaps on THE DARK KNIGHT RISES. Want more? How about his actual box office predictions? Read 'em & weep:

Top 15 Summer Movie Box Office Predictions

1. The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros. - July 20)

$172 million opening; $445 million total

2. Marvel's The Avengers (Disney - May 4)

$136 million opening; $340 million total

3. The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony - July 3)

$75 million (Tuesday through Thursday) $80 million (Friday to Sunday); $310 million total

4. Prometheus (20th Century Fox - June

$62.5 million opening; $245 million total

5. Brave (Disney•Pixar - June 22)

$54 million opening; $210 million total

6. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (DreamWorks Animation - June

$56 million opening; $185 million total

6. Ice Age: Continental Drift (20th Century Fox - July 13)

$62 million opening; $180 million total

7. The Bourne Legacy (Universal - August 3)

$56 million opening; $175 million total

9. G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount - June 29)

$57 million opening; $155 million total

10. Men in Black 3 (Sony - May 25)

$68 million (four-day opening); $155 million total

11. Snow White and the Huntsman (Universal - June 1)

$44 million opening; $145 million total

12. Battleship (Universal - May 18)

$52 million opening; $130 million total

13. Total Recall (Sony - August 3)

$34 million opening; $110 million total

14. That's My Boy (Sony - June 15)

$36 million opening; $105 million total

15. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros. - May 11)

$34 million opening; $105 million total

Bubbling under, we can see the ensemble comedy Neighborhood Watch, Timur Bekmambetov's vampire action movie Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (20th Century Fox - June 22) and The Expendables 2 (Lionsgate - August 17) having the potential to reach $100 million or fall just short.

That's it for now, but check back every week as we have updated numbers in our Box Office Preview as new info is released on the movies. Feel free to post your own summer Top 10s in the comments below as well.

Notice how he has TDKR winning the summer with a whopping 172 million opening weekend & the entire summer & the Avengers coming in a weak second? Really?! Has this guy even bothered to watch the various respective trailers for both films? Thoughts please. Rolling Eyes

webhead2006 Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:35 am

He sure must be a nolan lover. Because we all see the signs Avengers is going to kill all sorts of buts and its more then likely going to do more then the predicated 150mill mark they think. Plus its long summer run its likely to have before mib 3, and some june/july stuff its probably going to be the topper. TDKR will probably do well, but of course no where near where tdk did. As for the rest i dont really care besides spider-man and its name along will probably get fans to see it and will probably pull a decent haul over for sony. Only other film that might be odd ball is battleship, from what i hear its been kicking all sorts of butt over seas, and that could maybe do the same here. But for me i think it will probably go avengers, then maybe tdkr, spider-man, as top three for the summer, with mib 3/gi joe 2, and battleship rounding out the top 6.

non_amos Tue Apr 24, 2012 2:40 am

I really wish DARK SHADOWS would do well but as I voiced over in the Jonathan Frid thread, I fear that Tim Burton's 'comedic take' will actually hurt it. I mean, look at it & then look at the original source material! Even the 1991 TV mini-series remake did the source material more justice than this. And placing it one week after Avengers?! What were they smoking?! Suspect

webhead2006 Tue Apr 24, 2012 3:25 am

Ya they should have put it in june after avengers, and then just contend with mib 3. As for the comeditic take, I hope it turns out ok. But I can see why folks may not like it. I did read some of the original folks who have cameo in film said they liked this new appraoched.

Apologist Puncher Tue Apr 24, 2012 9:31 pm

I can't stand the 'Men In Black' movies, but to say it will top-out at $155 million is retarded in and of itself.

Nolanite's live in such a state of denial, it's freakin' funny.....

'Avengers' will make $150-155 million opening weekend.

Count on it.

thecolorsblend Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:17 pm

non_amos wrote:Notice how he has TDKR winning the summer with a whopping 172 million opening weekend & the entire summer & the Avengers coming in a weak second? Really?! Has this guy even bothered to watch the various respective trailers for both films? Thoughts please.

What I see happening is that a lotta people are going to be surprised by how poorly TDKRises does. In fact, I've wondered more than once if it doesn't end up in the third slot this summer. Not because so many other movies look so much better (although...) but because, among my highly non-scientific anecdotal evidence, nobody except the corest of the core Batman fans seem up for the game as far as TDKRises goes. Everybody (even traditional DC guys like me) are far more interested in the Avengers, and even Spider-Man. Batman? I just don't sense any excitement there. Idle curiosity in some cases. But by and large, it doesn't have the fever pitch you were already experiencing heading into TDK. It'll hit a profit, no doubts there, but I've got my doubts it'll even be #2 this summer.

Fundamentally, you have to understand that the only difference between Nolanites and Apologists is that the Nolanites franchise of choice is actually successful. Other than that, the same BS excuses, wishful thinking, denial and other traits are shared pretty much equally between the two groups.

Apologist Puncher Wed Apr 25, 2012 9:57 pm

When I read ComicBookMovies.com, it amazes me how hypocritically retarded they are. This is how they usually talk:

"u cunt juj da dark nice roses cuz u dont c it yep."

Followed by...

"duh dark nice roses is epix n duh masturpiece n gunna beat off duh avengers at duh boss office!!!"

Yep. You can't say Rises or Hardly Bane look like ass because you haven't seen it yet. But they can say how it is a "masterpiece", that Hardly Bane is going to be "The best villain yet" and that *snicker* Rises is going to be an Oscar-nominated film.

Idiot much?

thecolorsblend Thu Apr 26, 2012 12:12 am

Apologist Puncher wrote:When I read ComicBookMovies.com, it amazes me how hypocritically retarded they are. This is how they usually talk:

"u cunt juj da dark nice roses cuz u dont c it yep."

Followed by...

"duh dark nice roses is epix n duh masturpiece n gunna beat off duh avengers at duh boss office!!!"

Yep. You can't say Rises or Hardly Bane look like ass because you haven't seen it yet. But they can say how it is a "masterpiece", that Hardly Bane is going to be "The best villain yet" and that *snicker* Rises is going to be an Oscar-nominated film.

Idiot much?

It's gone now but back when TDK first hit the scene, some dude opened a BlogSpot or something that was the equivalent of the Singerman Sucks page. Basically he lampooned a lot of things about the movie but, in what could have been his masterpiece, he then devoted an entire entry to TDK's zonked out cult members... um, I mean fans. The high point of his diatribe came when he compared TDK lemmings to the nitwits seen in Idiocracy. "Brawndo's got... electrolytes!" Same shit, really. "TDK's got, um, like, THEMES. Or whatever."

But the coup de grace came when he basically took the words out of my mouth. A fucked up double standard appeared before too long. You heard a lot of asswipes saying "It's not just a good comic book film or a good Batman film; it's a good FILM." Because, y'know, comic book movies are basically the unwanted, mentally retarded step child of cinema... except when Chris Nolan directs a Batman movie. The handwringing, self-loathing that comic book fans have utterly astounds me sometimes.

But anyway. A double standard. "It's got THEMES. It's a good FILM." Okay then. You point out the many and varied plotholes in the movie (ie, what the fuck was the Joker's plan during the armored truck chase?) and the champions of this good FILM play the "suspend disbelief" card. "You have to roll with it; it's a comic book."

Well, which is it, asshole? Is it an air-tight, perfect FILM without flaw? Because I see a fuckton of flaws that I'd never remark upon were this a Burton or Schumacher Batman film. Is it a comic book movie? Because I see a lot of bullshit pretension going around there. Chris Nolan didn't seem to ever decide if he wanted to make "serious, adult cinema" or a "check your brain at the door romp". Trying to be both accomplishes neither.

I don't hate TDK exactly but I sure do hate Nolanites...

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